It’s the latest research in the budding field of Twitter modeling, and as with much in statistics, it sounds a bit like magic. The researchers pulled several million football-related tweets from the Twitter fire hose during the 2010, 2011 and 2012 seasons. They then analyzed and cataloged the sentiment by team, ran the data set through a number of statistical models, and came upon several that either matched or beat traditional forecasts.

Conventional, non-Twitter prediction methods predict the winning team around 58
percent of the time. But by combining conventional methods with Twitter-based
models, the researchers were able to predict the game winner with 65.9 percent
accuracy. Models that used both Twitter and traditional data also made the most
accurate predictions on other sports-betting metrics, like the combined number
of points both teams scored.

“We find that simple features of Twitter data can match or exceed the
performance of the game statistical features more traditionally used for these
tasks,” the researchers conclude. “It is hoped that our approach and dataset may
be useful for those who want to use social media to study markets, in sports
betting and beyond.”

That, ultimately, might be the coolest takeaway from this research — the
implication that economists could keep plumbing Twitter for insight on a
yet-unimagined range of topics and fields. Twitter modeling isn’t exactly new,
of course: We’ve already seen the network predict elections, the stock market,
box office revenues and the spread of contagious disease. But there’s a
suggestion here that we’re just beginning to unlock Twitter’s predictive
potential: The network could predict any number of real-life phenomena — from
whether your home team wins its next big game to when hit-and-runs will occur.

In an opinion piece for the Washington Post Sunday, sociologist Fabio Rojas
(who has done a bit of work in this field himself) concluded that social
media modeling will be the death of the political polling industry — it’s far
more accurate, he argues, to analyze tweets than poll results.

That augurs an intriguing new world where social media-fueled predictions are
both more common and accurate. Thanks to Twitter, we could someday guess any
number of details about the future ahead of time — down to the results of
football games before they’re even played.

Article By: Caitlin Dewey

Source: Washington Post

We love sports in large part because of the uncertainty. It isn't scripted, and we can never be sure how it's going to turn out. Andrew Luck is one of the rare cases of something being interesting because we know precisely how the story is going to end.

Luck is everything he was made out to be coming out of Stanford. The Colts quarterback is practically a lock to be a
great player. Everyone can see that. And following his maturation into being that great player is going to be fascinating.

Luck has looked very good in the preseason as he prepares for his second season. In the preseason opener last week, he was 4-of-6 for 51 yards in limited work. Against the Giants he played one quarter, and one drive into the second quarter. He went 9-of-13 for 107 yards and two touchdowns, and when he took a seat the Colts led 17-3.

If someone said that, in about five months, Luck would be universally acknowledged as a top three NFL quarterback, would you be that surprised?

He had some things to work on after a very good rookie season, and looks much better in year two. He still has the athletic ability and the big arm, and in very brief preseason work it's obvious this familiar offense fits him well.

Last season Luck worked in Bruce Arians' vertical offense, and attempted more passes of 20 or more yards (101) than any other quarterback, according to Pro Football Focus. Joe Flacco was second with 92, and only five quarterbacks in all attempted more than 80. And Luck was good on those deep throws, completing 35 (his receivers had eight drops, too). But he had six interceptions (only Drew Brees had more on deep passes, with seven), and the heavy vertical attack also helps explain his 54.1 completion percentage. Not that he didn't do very well in that offense – he threw for 4,374 yards and led the Colts, who were 2-14 the year before, to a very surprising playoff berth.

Now with Pep Hamilton as offensive coordinator, Luck is running the same offense he did at Stanford. Mainly because Hamilton was Luck's offensive coordinator during the quarterback's final season at Stanford. In the Colts' two preseason games it's easy to see that Luck will be asked to complete a lot of high-percentage throws. He looks comfortable and confident. His completion percentage should skyrocket. It's 68.4 percent this preseason. His interceptions probably will go down, although he did get lucky Sunday night when Giants cornerback Aaron Ross dropped one on a play that Reggie Wayne eventually hauled in for a circus touchdown catch. Luck performed admirably in a new offense last year, but he seems like a perfect fit in Hamilton's scheme that has plenty of West Coast elements.

Luck's physical ability is special, even among NFL quarterbacks, and he showed it off against the Giants. His 18-yard touchdown throw to T.Y. Hilton on third and 11 was made with pinpoint accuracy right over the cornerback – and was also a very athletic catch by a rapidly emerging Hilton. His best play against the Giants was probably an incompletion. He rolled left, then contorted his body to deliver a perfect strike downfield between two Giants defenders to tight end Coby Fleener. Fleener dropped the throw. It was still a jaw-dropping pass.

Earlier this week, Andrew Luck was in the news because his teammate Reggie Wayne made a controversial comparison between Luck and Peyton Manning. Watch ESPN's First Take discuss the controversial comparison.

There has been quite a lot of noise made in the Professional Handicapping circles about where Phil Vassallo originated from. To set the record straight, he is originally from Athens, Greece. He is known by his friends as "Phil the Greek". He spent a lifetime as a professional gambler, mostly in Horse Racing. In the last decade he got turned onto sports betting and says he never looked back. The cigar smoking Phil Vassallo managed to beat other Sports Handicappers that have been in the business for a lifetime. He held an impressive 56% win ratio in the 2012 NFL Season and says he plans to do even better in 2013.

He says his strategy is betting on the previous seasons dogs. The dogs are the NFL teams that really struggled. The teams with the 2-14 record that nobody wants to bet on. Well someone does, Phil the Greek will take those dogs. Why you ask? Well he explains that losing teams usually do better the following years. They have more to prove and have very little to lose. Sportsbooks also give  these "dog" teams the best lines. Anybody that knows anything about Sports Betting will tell you that it is all about getting a more favorable line.

Phil says there are a few contenders for the team that will go against all odds and become the "dog to bet"  for 2013. Currently it's the Jacksonville Jaguars. Yes, the team with the worst record in the NFL for 2012. He is also looking at two more teams to beat the odds. The Oakland Raiders and Philadelphia  Eagles.
 

Sorry Tim Tebow, not this time. You can go back to Tebowing now.

Two of the NFL's elite franchises take on each other in a preseason game. The New York Giants (2012: 9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) are looking to bounce back from last year's swoon. They did have the same record that they had in 2011 when they won the Super Bowl. The Pittsburgh Steelers (2012: 8-8 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) also missed the playoffs last year. They are 28-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, while the Giants are 22-1. The Giants visit Heinz Field on Saturday night to take on the Steelers from Pittsburgh at 7:30pmET.


Pittsburgh opened as a -3-point betting odds favorite and moved to -2 in most books. The total opened at
35.5 and remained there in most books.

Brown and Wilson battle for starting running back

The New York Giants had a decent running attack last year, as they ranked 14th
in the league with 116.4 yards per game. Ahmad Bradshaw is gone and the Giants
will go younger with speedy David Wilson and Andre Brown. 

Wilson is the more explosive back, while Brown provides the power. He had eight
touchdowns in 10 games last year. 

The defense is the main concern for the Giants as DE/OLB Justin Tucker and DE
Jason Pierre-Paul is recovering from back surgery. The Giants drafted Damontre
Moore in the third round and he'll play alongside another rookie in Johnathan Hankins,
a second-rounder from Ohio State. The Giants ranked 25th last year against the run,
so they need better play up front. Both young players have been very impressive in
camp.

With Eli Manning taking a series or two, expect the Giants to get
a long look from rookie Ryan Nassib, the fourth-round pick from
Syracuse. 

Key Injuries

NY Giants:

• DE Justin Tuck (back) is out.
• DE Jason Pierre-Paul (back) is out.

Pittsburgh:

• WR Plaxico Burress (shoulder) is out indefinitely.
• TE Heath Miller (knee) is out indefinitely.
• LB Sean Spencer (knee) is out indefinitely.

Steelers looking for a Prime Comeback

The days of Jerome Bettis are over. Rashard Mendenhall is now playing in
Arizona. The Steelers have always been a run-first team but last year they
ranked an atrocious 26th (96.1 yards per game) on the ground.

They drafted Le'Veon Bell from Michigan State to help with the
running game. Bell is a big back with good feet but he's not considered a
powerful runner. He'll get every chance to win the job from Jonathan Dwyer and
Isaac Redman. He'll work with the starters on Saturday. 

The Steelers also changed their backup quarterbacks around as they brought in Bruce
Gradkowski to back up Ben Roethlisberger, who played with an injured shoulder
and rib last season.

Defensively, Pittsburgh needs to get younger as linebacker James Harrison and nose tackle Casey Hampton are gone. Safety Troy Polamalu can't seem to stay  healthy. Outside linebacker Jarvis Jones is the prototypical player for their 3-4 scheme. Rookie Shamarko Thomas is a big
hitting safety who the Steeler took in the fourth round that could eventually
replace Polamalu.

Weather:
Kickoff temperature: 73. Northeast wind 7-9. 
 
QB Rotations
New York Giants
Eli Manning
David Carr
Ryan Nassib (R)
Curtis
Painter

Pittsburgh
Ben Roethlisberger 
Bruce Gradkowski
Landry Jones (R)
John
Parker Wilson

Oh, the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers also have a very sexy female fan club that includes the hot Jessica Alba. Check them out!

LAST MEETING, PRESEASON
 

• Aug. 19, 2011, at Lambeau Field; Packers won, 28-20
• QB Aaron Rodgers connected on 9 of 12 passes for 97 yards and a TD (126.0
  passer rating).
• WR Chastin West led Green Bay’s offense with 134 receiving yards on five
  catches (26.8 avg.), highlighted by a game-winning 97-yard TD grab from QB Matt
  Flynn early in the fourth quarter that gave the Packers a 21-20 lead.
• Flynn completed 5 of 6 passes for 141 yards and a TD for a perfect 158.3
  passer rating.

1. David Bakhtiari.
In most preseason openers, Packers coach Mike McCarthy plays his starters only a few series. But look for new starting left tackle Bakhtiari to stay on the field even after the rest of the No. 1 offensive line retires for the night.

“He needs to learn to play the position at this level and speed and see the things he’s going to see in Week 1,” McCarthy said.

McCarthy tabbed the fourth-round pick from Colorado to start after Bryan Bulaga
sustained a season-ending knee injury, and so far the 21-year-old from the University
of Colorado has performed well.

“To his credit, he has picked things up really nicely and done a
good job for being book smart, but he transfers that onto the field,” Packers
offensive line coach James Campen said. “He’s the type of guy who’s
very cerebral and can go out there, see it in the meeting, take the information,
process it and put it on the field.”

2. The kickers.
Special teams coach Shawn Slocum could not have been put it any more
directly when asked about veteran kicker Mason Crosby’s on-going struggles.


“It’s time to make some field goals,” Slocum said this week.

Of course, he said the same thing last season when Crosby went through a horrible
stretch in which he missed 12-of-24 field goals on the way to an NFL-worst 63.6
percent conversion rate. Crosby had another woeful performance in last
Saturday’s scrimmage, when he made just 3-of-8 field goals. He bounced back with
a 3-for-4 performance in the lone field goal period during practice this week
but is just 15-of-23 so far in training camp.

The challenger, unproven first-year kicker Giorgio Tavecchio, can’t match Crosby’s leg
strength but has been far more accurate (19-of-23). Fundamentally, they are
completely different kickers. The right-footed Crosby use a two-step approach,
while the left-footed Tavecchio uses a three-step approach.

“I’ll tell you this, I’m going to withhold my judgment until we see these games start to
occur,” Slocum said. “That’s the biggest stage we can evaluate with right now,
and that’s where we’ll do that.”

3. Vince Young. If McCarthy and quarterbacks coach Ben McAdoo had enough time,
they would probably make significant changes to Young’s footwork and throwing motion.
But with only three days of practice after Young signed a minimum contract with the Packers on
Monday, a complete overhaul is out of the question.

Instead, they have tried to give Young enough instruction to allow him to function. Though it
looked ugly at times in practice – he threw an interception during a half-speed,
jog-through period on Thursday – Young is expected to play against the Cardinals
because the Packers need to begin evaluating whether the 30-year-old former
first-round draft pick would be an upgrade over backups Graham Harrell and B.J. Coleman.

“It’s definitely a challenge; it’s not easy,” McAdoo said. “It’s a lot easier to do it with a
veteran than a rookie coming in at this point. He has some background. He’s
played some football. He’s won some games in this league and has played well.
That’ll help.”

4. The return game. The Packers will continue to explore options so that they don’t have
to put Randall Cobb, one of their top receivers, at kick returner. With Cobb perhaps out
Friday night because of a biceps injury, it means Jeremy Ross should get the first crack at the
returns. Slocum has little doubt about Ross’ ability, but ball security
continues to be a concern. Ross had a 49-yard kickoff return in Saturday’s
scrimmage but muffed a punt in practice three days later.

The Packers have used several returners in practice, but many of them are unlikely to make
the roster. Ross is a good bet because of his improvement as a receiver. So is
rookie running back Johnathan Franklin, who has almost no experience
as a returner but has been working on it in practice.

5. Running backs. The unquestioned star of last Saturday’s scrimmage was rookie
Eddie Lacy, who had explosive runs of 16 and 20 yards.

It would be an upset if Lacy isn’t the Week 1 starter, especially considering Franklin is
off to a slow start and DuJuan Harris (knee) remains out. The only thing
that could hold back Lacy is an injury, and sure enough he had a hamstring
tighten up on him this week and might not play against the Cardinals.

PACKERS OPEN PRESEASON WITH HOME TILT VS. CARDINALS
 

• The Green Bay Packers’ 2013 season officially kicks off Friday night when
  they welcome the Arizona Cardinals to Lambeau Field, the first time since 2010
  that Green Bay has opened its preseason slate at home.
   
• It marks the third time in the past five years that the clubs have squared
  off in the preseason, with the last meeting between the teams coming in 2011 at
  Lambeau Field (Aug. 19).
   
• The teams have met 22 times before in the preseason, with the Packers
  holding a 16-6 lead in the all-time series. The clubs’ first preseason meeting
  came on Aug. 16, 1950, when the Packers hosted the Chicago Cardinals in Green
  Bay. The teams went on to play each other every year in the preseason from
  1950-58 (twice in 1957).
   
• The Packers have won each of the last six meetings between the clubs in the
  preseason. This marks the first time that Green Bay has opened the preseason
  against the Cardinals since the teams squared off in New Orleans on Aug. 8,
  1964.
   
• This will be the fourth preseason meeting between the clubs (2002, 2009,
  2011) since the Cardinals moved to Arizona in 1988.
   
• The Packers hosted the Cardinals last season in Week 9, a 31-17 Green Bay
  victory highlighted by QB Aaron Rodgers’
  four TD passes.
   
• One of Green Bay’s finest offensive efforts in the preseason came in 2009 at
  Arizona when the Packers racked up 38 points and 357 yards of total offense in
  the first half of their eventual 44-37 victory.
   
• The Packers enter Friday night’s contest having won six of their last eight
  preseason games at Lambeau Field.
   
• Green Bay’s next preseason contest comes a week from Saturday when it
  travels to St. Louis to face the Rams on Aug. 17.

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 35.5)

In the past, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh usually played his starters for most of the first quarter but with a rash of injuries during the summer, Baltimore may limit the action of its first stringers. 

Tampa Bay is also trying to protect its key players from injury this offseason. The Bucs aren’t sold on Josh Freeman as the No. 1, so there could be plenty of snaps for him and rookie QB Mike Glennon.

St. Louis Rams at Cleveland Browns (-4, 35.5)

St. Louis is going to give RB Daryl Richardson the starting gig heading into the preseason opener. The Rams will work in their new offensive line additions Thursday, so Sam Bradford’s workload could depend on the protection.

Cleveland won’t have RB Trent Richardson in the lineup versus St. Louis and is still without Montario Hardesty, leaving rushing duties to third and fourth-stringers Dion Lewis and Brandon Jackson. 

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 35.5)

While Robert Griffin III says he feels great, the Redskins won’t risk throwing their franchise QB out there Thursday. Washington will go with Kirk Cousins at QB and is expected to play its starters 10-15 plays.

Tennessee head coach Mike Munchak is focusing on his rebuilt offensive line this preseason, more specifically paving the way for RB Chris Johnson. The Titans first string will play between 18 and 25 plays.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 37)

These two teams have shared practice time the past week, so there may be some familiarity with each other Thursday. Bengals star WR A.J. Green will sit out while nursing a sore knee and fellow WR Andrew Hawkins is out with an ankle injury.

Atlanta won’t have TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Julio Jones or LB Sean Weatherspoon in Week 1 of the preseason. Head coach Mike Smith may not keep QB Matt Ryan under center long with injuries to the offensive line this week.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 35)

Peyton Manning is expected to see limited action all preseason but he did tell reporters he was anxious to play the 49ers Thursday, hinting that he may actually take snaps Thursday. Manning didn’t play in Denver’s Week 1 preseason game last summer.

San Francisco will give its first stringers a taste of action before turning its attention to position needs. An injury to CB Chris Culliver has left a big hole in the secondary, so there could be plenty of tinkering with the pass defense. Colt McCoy will get some face time as Colin Kaepernick’s backup.

Seattle Seahawks at San Diego Chargers (+2, 35.5)

The Seahawks have become one of the best preseason bets, going 39-26-3 ATS since 1995 including a 4-0 ATS mark last summer. Seattle QB Russell Wilson, who will see limited snaps, told reporters the Seahawks are bringing a basic offense into Thursday game.

San Diego’s new head coach Mike McCoy is stressing speed this summer, so the Bolts could be full of juice Thursday night, even though they’re missing some downfield threats. The Chargers lost WR Danario Alexander for the season after he tore his ACL this week and WR Vincent Brown is still slowed with a hamstring strain.

Step #1:

(PW) 4% of bankroll 20% of the time.

(PW) stands for "Prime Wagers".

For example: If your bankroll is $400 then your prime wagers will be $16 (4% of $400).

Prime Wagers will be made in 2 out of every 10 games that are bet on average. 





Prime Wagers are the best plays of the day. They don't have to be a sure shot that is "suppose to be" much the best. For example: A Prime Wager can be a win bet on a True Odds Overlay. 

a Top Pick or Best Overlay that looks solid, etc, etc.

As mentioned in several other articles it is highly recommended that the player has
a separate bankroll for win bets and exotics.

Please Note:
Every player should have a "win bets bankroll" first and foremost. If the
player has a decent size overall bankroll it can be split up for win bets and
exotics and each exotic type wager gets a bankroll.

For example:
A player has a $1000 overall bankroll. $400 of that becomes the win bets bankroll,
$300 becomes the exacta bets bankroll and $300 becomes the pick 3 bankroll, etc. 

If the player does have a large enough overall bankroll to split, it is
recommended that at least 40% of it becomes the "win bets bankroll". The
rest can be divided into the exotic wagers that are desired most by the player. 

It has been proven by many experts over the decades that win bets are
the most productive type of wager. 

Step #2:

(RW) 2% of bankroll 50% of the time.

(RW) stands for "Regular Wagers".

For example: If your bankroll is $400 then
your regular bets will be $8 (2% of $400).

Regular Wagers will be made by the player in 5 out of every 10 games on average.

Regular Wagers are nothing special like prime bets but are still worth playing. They can be a
win bet using the Conservative / Powerful Betting strategy strategy, etc. 



Step #3:

(AW) 1% of bankroll 30% of the time.

(AW) stands for "Action Wagers".


For example: If your bankroll is $400 then your action bets will be $4
(1% of $400).

Action Wagers will be made by the player in 3 out of every 10 games on average.

Action wagers are basically bets just to have "action". Since many players only wager on the weekends or such, they don't like to pass a game.

This is acceptable as long as a small percentage
of bankroll is wagered on these games. It is ideal to actually pass certain 
 games when you are not liking the line but many players simply choose not to.

 
Summary: